Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 0.318735 0.373572 0.433245 0.502777 0.581336 0.667107 0.767590
2025-04-20 0.234071 0.302843 0.383712 0.484993 0.607551 0.750133 0.927551
2025-04-27 0.170731 0.243994 0.337000 0.461839 0.622894 0.821398 1.081993
2025-05-04 0.128308 0.202943 0.305247 0.452138 0.653496 0.915287 1.276037
2025-05-11 0.095761 0.168458 0.276284 0.441888 0.682707 1.012120 1.487063
2025-05-18 0.066247 0.131320 0.236578 0.410280 0.678860 1.065702 1.649169
2025-05-25 0.044258 0.100071 0.199174 0.375431 0.665450 1.105085 1.797894
2025-06-01 0.031528 0.081289 0.178031 0.362657 0.684277 1.194702 2.030758
2025-06-08 0.022077 0.065542 0.158441 0.348858 0.699780 1.281976 2.271318
2025-06-15 0.016840 0.057080 0.150865 0.355670 0.751973 1.434730 2.631262
2025-06-22 0.011087 0.044424 0.130811 0.334187 0.750599 1.499440 2.857911
2025-06-29 0.007481 0.035604 0.116564 0.321427 0.763660 1.590891 3.139245
2025-07-06 0.004811 0.027957 0.102890 0.307861 0.775639 1.686985 3.447998
2025-07-13 0.003373 0.023653 0.096638 0.310317 0.821635 1.852320 3.897070
2025-07-20 0.002227 0.019360 0.088595 0.306430 0.853932 1.996556 4.324340
2025-07-27 0.001529 0.016450 0.083739 0.309938 0.904107 2.182824 4.849075
2025-08-03 0.001017 0.013821 0.078579 0.311366 0.950217 2.367068 5.388556
2025-08-10 0.000562 0.010478 0.068507 0.295051 0.950402 2.456539 5.754218
2025-08-17 0.000278 0.007619 0.058257 0.274449 0.935646 2.512478 6.059609
2025-08-24 0.000154 0.006077 0.053133 0.269519 0.961837 2.662322 6.570137
2025-08-31 0.000080 0.004764 0.048033 0.262844 0.982140 2.801547 7.071588
2025-09-07 0.000050 0.004188 0.047004 0.271827 1.049668 3.058606 7.843857
2025-09-14 0.000020 0.003072 0.040913 0.257595 1.045369 3.144456 8.255682